Declaring martial law in a stable and boisterous democracy was an audacious gamble – and one that appears to have backfired spectacularly for South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol.
Now, the former prosecutor and conservative firebrand’s political career hangs by a thread, with an impeachment motion against him underway and the country’s leader rapidly losing support even within his own ruling party.
Dramatic scenes from South Korea on Tuesday night showed military helicopters landing near the National Assembly in the capital Seoul, soldiers breaking through windows to try and prevent lawmakers from gathering, and protesters confronting riot police.
But the operation was unsuccessful. TV stations and news media continued to report unhindered, people traveled freely and there were no mass arrests. When lawmakers voted to overturn Yoon’s surprise decree, security forces backed away.
In the days since the streets of Seoul have been busy with commuter traffic, there was little extra security presence on the ground, businesses and restaurants were open, and the country was functioning as normal.
At one rally in the capital on Wednesday, teacher Kyung-soo said Yoon’s attacks on his opponents – including calling them “communist forces” – were “the behavior of a dictator, and clearly clashes with the wishes of the people.”
Last year, Yoon was serenading United States President Joe Biden with a rendition of ‘American Pie’ by Don McLean at a White House state dinner and toasting their “iron clad” relationship.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated that South Korea is “one of our closest partners and allies” and said it was important to “see this process play out peacefully and according to the constitution and the rule of law.”
As a nation tries to understand why Yoon chose the nuclear option of martial law, many are relieved that the fiasco may well be remembered as the week when democracy was threatened in South Korea, but ultimately survived.
Who is Yoon and what was he thinking?
Yoon, a political newcomer, took office in 2022 with the conservative People Power Party, winning the presidential election by a margin of less than 1%.
He had spent almost 30 years as a prosecutor, leading high-profile investigations into corruption scandals that included a graft probe against former President Park Geun-hye that led to her impeachment and landed her in prison.
On the campaign trail, Yoon appealed to the country’s growing anti-feminist movement, and committed to abolishing the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family, which he claimed is unfair to men.
And while his predecessor Moon Jae-in favored dialogue with North Korea, Yoon took a tougher stance, promising to bulk up the South’s military, and even hinting he would launch a preemptive strike if he saw signs of a launch against Seoul.
In office, Yoon clashed fiercely with the opposition. Earlier this year, opposition parties overwhelmingly won elections seen as a referendum on Yoon’s rule, and took control of the National Assembly.
This left him a lame-duck president prevented from moving forward on legislation to cut taxes and ease business regulations, as his main rivals in the Democratic Party used parliament to impeach key cabinet members and hold up a budget bill.
It was this gridlock that Yoon used to try and justify his fateful decree.
In his speech declaring martial law Tuesday, he labelled the opposition’s actions “clear anti-state behavior aimed at inciting rebellion” and referenced “threats posed by North Korea’s communist forces,” vowing to “eliminate anti-state elements.”
While Yoon had previously “claimed to advocate for fairness and common sense,” as president, “his words and actions reflect a dictator’s,” said Park Sung-min, analyst at Min Consulting in Seoul.
“It seems like a political suicide.”
But Yoon’s eventual decision to rescind the decree shows he “is not a man who’s trying to seize power, or create a second term, or prolong his rule,” said Sydney Seiler, senior adviser for the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“From the ruling party’s perspective, (he’s) trying to get the ball moving. He probably thought he had much more support within the ruling party for his actions than he actually did.”
The designer handbag at the center of the controversy
Observers say Yoon’s decision to declare martial law may have been more self-serving.
Since taking office, he has faced plummeting approval ratings over economic issues and a series of scandals involving his wife and political appointments that prompted calls for him to resign.
First Lady Kim Keon Hee was accused last year of accepting a $2,200 Christian Dior bag as a gift – a potential violation of anti-graft laws. A secretly filmed video that surfaced online purported to show Kim receiving a cloud-blue “Lady Dior Pouch” from a Korean-American pastor.
The first lady is no stranger to controversy – over the past few years, she has apologized for resumé-padding and has faced allegations ranging from academic plagiarism to stock manipulation, which the presidential office has repeatedly denied.
The main opposition Democratic Party accused the president of “concealing suspicions” surrounding his wife, and the mounting public backlash even caused a rift between Yoon and senior members of his party.
“Yoon tends to act more on instinct than rationality, embodying a reckless ‘lonely hero’ persona,” said Ahn Byung-jin, professor at the global academy for future civilizations at Kyung Hee University.
“He perceives the current situation as an existential crisis, especially with attempts to impeach members of his cabinet, cut the budget, and push for special investigations against his wife. He believes he is seriously cornered.”
What comes next for Yoon?
Yoon said he recently began practicing golf in preparation for “golf diplomacy” with US President-elect Donald Trump, but his overreach on Tuesday leaves his position on the world stage, and domestically, seriously in doubt.
Parliamentary wrangles have recently toppled a government elsewhere. This week in France, Prime Minister Michel Barnier was forced to resign in a no-confidence vote after his attempt to ram through part of his government’s annual budget.
For some South Koreans, such as pastor Kwak Dong-seok, Yoon has worked to address economic issues, and is correct in his claims of “anti-state” forces in the country.
“Martial law is often criticized as excessive, but in some cases, it has been justified as a measure to prevent the establishment of a communist regime,” said Kwak, who organizes regular conservative rallies and political activities.
But others say Yoon’s decision shows how far removed he is from public sentiment.
“Korean democracy started late but we made it by ourselves and are very proud of it,” said school principal Kim Hyeon. Yoon’s attempt at martial law demonstrates that “the president’s way of thinking doesn’t match our society,” she said.
In the days since Yoon’s botched martial law attempt, extraordinary details have emerged of just how many senior figures, both within the political establishment and the military, were caught completely off-guard.
However, on Friday morning, Han appeared to signal a dramatic change in his thinking, saying he now felt it is necessary to suspend the president’s constitutional powers after learning that Yoon had allegedly attempted to use troops to arrest key political figures “under the pretext of them being anti-state forces.”
Meanwhile, little has been heard from Yoon himself, deepening the mystery around both his future and what led him to make his martial law announcement in the first place.
Lawmakers are expected to vote on an impeachment motion in the next two days, and police have launched an investigation into Yoon and other top officials on treason allegations.
Many believe the botched martial law and subsequent democratic proceedings show that South Korean democracy is alive and well.
“Korean democracy has the awareness and capability to prevent any impulsive actions by a dictator,” said Park from Min Consulting.
Yoon’s actions appear to be a dramatic miscalculation that could cost him the presidency, as protesters in Seoul continue to press for his resignation. The people may have saved democracy in South Korea this week, though months of political uncertainty lie ahead.
